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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers rising together. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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